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Also, Stephen Cloobeck, a billionaire and 2026 California gubernatorial candidate, purchased approximately $10,000 in contracts tied to his campaign. He was fined $31,770 and suspended for three years.

Each settlement involved cooperation with Kalshi’s investigation. 

What distinguishes Santos’ penalty is the exchange’s allegation that he actively issued false or misleading statements to alter prices and profited materially, violating additional rules such as failure to cooperate and manipulative conduct. 

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If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.

As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.

The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.

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The restaurateur donated $5,000 to Grasso’s unsuccessful 2018 campaign for Illinois attorney general in November 2017, but Grasso returned the money the following month after a TV station questioned the contribution, according to Patch.

Grasso was quick to defend Rovito following his arrest, describing him as “a stellar corporate and residential citizen” who has “a YouTube following of a quarter of a million people or something like that.”

Rovito, meanwhile, was such a fan of the mayor that he named a dish after him— “Linguini alla Mayor Grasso”—a pasta that comes with “fresh tomato sauce and basil, tossed with a touch of olive oil, and topped with fresh ricotta.”