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“We continue to view regulation as the largest risk to prediction markets,” says the analyst. “While industry growth remains robust, adverse legal outcomes could materially impact sports contract availability and long-term adoption.”

Amid a string of losses in federal appellate courts, it appears increasingly prediction markets are angling to take their cases to the U.S. Supreme Court, banking that the high court will allow them to continue offering sports event contracts free of state gambling regulations.

Some legal experts and members of the investment community believe it’s possible the Supreme Court could hear a prediction market case at some point over the next six or seven months.

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Latin America revenue also continued to grow during the six-month period – up 29% to €100 million – driven by customer acquisition from the World Cup in both Mexico and Colombia.

The company cited a 100% uplift in Mexico’s average audience versus the 2022 World Cup, which had led to “excellent new customer acquisition” during the tournament.

The supplier’s total B2B revenue increased 14% YoY to €394.8 million, while adjusted EBITDA
increased 75% to €128.1 million.

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“Peru has been quite successful in channelling customers into the regulated framework,” Rossi comments. “The risk is that this channelisation can decrease in favour of the black market. We know the black market won’t have any consumption tax.

“There should be, in my opinion, a review of the whole ISC or consumption tax framework and find a kind of alignment or a better way to get an income in terms of taxes, but that should be balanced in order to avoid the disruption of businesses and a migration of customers to the illegal market.”

Atucha warns there is a tipping point where higher taxes can undermine channelisation, citing the UK and Germany as important case studies.