Genius Of Leonardo

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As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.

The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.

“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”

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This sense of understanding was also described as something that needed to be maintained continuously, rather than achieved only once and then relied upon. 

Consumers reiterated that being informed is an ongoing process, and that fast-paced and immersive gambling formats can rapidly erode awareness.

On the question of who should be responsible for maintaining this understanding, participants favoured a shared model rather than placing the burden solely on one party. 

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“So that is the delta we have to close by delivering a better product and better operational intensity in our sports business.”

Bengtsson said momentum from the summer’s World Cup had continued into the second half of the year.

“The World Cup, as you know, is largely a customer acquisition opportunity, and it was also combined with a good turnover period for us,” he outlined. “Yes, that has continued.