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If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.
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While the intention is to protect vulnerable households and ensure welfare is spent on essential needs, proposed measures are being complicated by legal, technical and privacy obstacles.
Harris Tsangarides, executive director of the Gaming & Casino Supervision Commission, said his department had noticed spikes in gambling activity coinciding with GMI payment dates, prompting the regulator to consider “technical solution” to cross-reference GMI beneficiary lists with casino membership records.
An issue raised by Giannis Vasiliadis, director of WBAS, was the limited access to recipients’ banking information. This limited data can hint at suspicious activity but cannot conclusively verify gambling transactions.
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When asked what responsible gambling measures the ARGN was seeking the implementation of, Akolade said the network wanted to establish minimum player protection standards across African markets and move responsible gambling requirements beyond paper-based rules towards measures that are actively enforced.
“We would like to see stronger player protection measures across African markets,” Akolade adds. “That includes enforcement of effective age and identity verification, meaningful self-exclusion systems, responsible gambling advertising standards, improved access to counselling and treatment services and stronger action against illegal operators.
“The current landscape pays lip service to responsible gaming, and you’d hardly see effective player protection architecture other than messages asking players to gamble responsibly and surface-level awareness campaigns.
