Beast Below

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Prediction market volume attributable to “takers”—recreational and retail traders who pull liquidity from exchanges—is forecast to reach $190 billion this year.

That estimate arrives courtesy of Macquarie and is well ahead of the research firm’s previous estimate of $169 billion in 2026 taker volume.

Takers is a prediction market industry colloquialism for the market participants that swiftly fill buy and sell orders, thus removing liquidity from the marketplace. Conversely, makers are the market participants viewed as liquidity providers and professional or sharp money.

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Registered customers increased to approximately 2,672,000 at the end of June, an increase of around 50,000 from the previous year.

For the first half of 2026, lottery and land based gaming generated €317.9 million in gross gaming revenue, remainin flat compared with H1 2025. 

Lottery games contributed €254.5 million, up from €246.1 million, bolstered by a 9.1% increase in digital lottery revenue propelled by the Veikkaus app and product launches such as Milli (launched June 2025). 

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Some factions within the government, especially the Ministry of Finance, are resisting more drastic measures. The Ministry of Finance, responsible for regulating sports betting and online gaming, understands the sector’s importance to the economy. Finance Minister Dario Durigan’s difficulty lies in convincing Lula that a well-regulated activity is important for public finances. Lula has said, in line with critics of the sector, that if it were up to him, he would end betting in Brazil.

The president’s critical view of betting is on par with other candidates. Studies by the Workers’ Party (PT) indicate that three out of four Brazilians are against betting establishments. This is the president’s justification against the sector.

What the president didn’t address is the tax revenue from betting.